Voto Aberto › EUA 2026 › Projeções
EUA 2026 · Projeções publicadas · atualizado em 27/10/2026
Projeções da eleição dos EUA 2026: Senado, Câmara e governadores, fonte por fonte
Na média de 10 fontes, os democratas são favoritos em 227 das 435 cadeiras da Câmara, os republicanos em 193, e 15 estão indefinidas. No Senado, os democratas chegam a 48 cadeiras e os republicanos a 46, com 6 corridas indefinidas. Abaixo, a nota de cada fonte, corrida por corrida.1,2,3
- Provável democrata
- Tende a democrata
- Indefinida
- Tende a republicano
- Provável republicano
Senado: as 35 corridas
Ordenadas da mais indefinida para a mais garantida. Gar. = garantida; Prov. = provável; Indef. = indefinida; Leve = tilt.
| Disputa | Hoje | Cook | DDHQ | Econ | FPO | Fox | IE | NBC | RCP | Sabato | Silver | ST | Média |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | Joni Ernst (R) | Indef. | Indef. | Tende R | Indef. | Indef. | Leve R | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | indefinida |
| Texas | John Cornyn (R) | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Tende D | Tende D | indefinida |
| Kansas | Roger Marshall (R) | Indef. | Tende R | Indef. | Indef. | Tende R | Leve R | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Tende R | indefinida |
| Ohio (especial) | Jon Husted (R) | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Tende D | Tende D | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Tende D | Tende D | indefinida |
| Alasca | Dan S. Sullivan (R) | Indef. | Tende D | Indef. | Tende D | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Tende D | Tende D | Tende D | indefinida |
| Maine | Susan Collins (R) | Indef. | Indef. | Tende D | Tende D | Indef. | Indef. | Tende D | Indef. | Indef. | Tende D | Tende D | indefinida |
| Michigan | Gary Peters (D) | Indef. | Tende D | Tende D | Tende D | Indef. | Leve D | Tende D | Indef. | Tende D | Prov. D | Tende D | tende a democrata |
| Carolina do Sul | Darline Graham (R) | Tende R | Tende R | Tende R | Tende R | Tende R | Tende R | Tende R | Indef. | Tende R | Tende R | Tende R | tende a republicano |
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts (R) | Prov. R | Tende R | Tende R | Prov. R | Prov. R | Tende R | Prov. R | Indef. | Tende R | Tende R | Tende R | tende a republicano |
| Minnesota | Tina Smith (D) | Tende D | Prov. D | Tende D | Prov. D | Tende D | Tende D | Prov. D | Indef. | Tende D | Prov. D | Prov. D | tende a democrata |
| New Hampshire | Jeanne Shaheen (D) | Tende D | Prov. D | Prov. D | Prov. D | Tende D | Leve D | Tende D | Tende D | Prov. D | Prov. D | Prov. D | provável democrata |
| Flórida (especial) | Ashley Moody (R) | Gar. R | Prov. R | Prov. R | Prov. R | Gar. R | Prov. R | Prov. R | Tende R | Prov. R | Prov. R | Prov. R | provável republicano |
| Carolina do Norte | Thom Tillis (R) | Prov. D | Prov. D | Prov. D | Prov. D | Prov. D | Tende D | Prov. D | Prov. D | Prov. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | provável democrata |
| Geórgia | Jon Ossoff (D) | Prov. D | Prov. D | Prov. D | Gar. D | Prov. D | Tende D | Prov. D | Prov. D | Prov. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | provável democrata |
| Mississippi | Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) | Prov. R | Prov. R | Prov. R | Gar. R | Prov. R | Gar. R | Prov. R | Prov. R | Prov. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | provável republicano |
| Montana | Steve Daines (R) | Gar. R | Prov. R | Prov. R | Prov. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Prov. R | Prov. R | Gar. R | Prov. R | Gar. R | provável republicano |
| Luisiana | Bill Cassidy (R) | Gar. R | Prov. R | Prov. R | Prov. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | provável republicano |
| Arkansas | Tom Cotton (R) | Gar. R | Gar. R | Prov. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | provável republicano |
| Novo México | Ben Ray Luján (D) | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Prov. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | provável democrata |
| Alabama | Tommy Tuberville (R) | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | provável republicano |
| Colorado | John Hickenlooper (D) | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | provável democrata |
| Delaware | Chris Coons (D) | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | provável democrata |
| Idaho | Jim Risch (R) | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | provável republicano |
| Illinois | Dick Durbin (D) | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | provável democrata |
| Kentucky | Mitch McConnell (R) | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | provável republicano |
| Massachusetts | Ed Markey (D) | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | provável democrata |
| Nova Jersey | Cory Booker (D) | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | provável democrata |
| Oklahoma | Alan Armstrong (R) | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | provável republicano |
| Oregon | Jeff Merkley (D) | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | provável democrata |
| Rhode Island | Jack Reed (D) | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | provável democrata |
| Dakota do Sul | Mike Rounds (R) | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | provável republicano |
| Tennessee | Bill Hagerty (R) | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | provável republicano |
| Virgínia | Mark Warner (D) | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | Gar. D | provável democrata |
| Virgínia Ocidental | Shelley Moore Capito (R) | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | provável republicano |
| Wyoming | Cynthia Lummis (R) | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | Gar. R | provável republicano |
Câmara: as 23 cadeiras mais disputadas
Distritos em que a média das notas fica perto do empate. A sigla é estado-número do distrito (ex.: PA-7 = 7º distrito da Pensilvânia).
| Disputa | Hoje | Cook | IE | Sabato | Econ | ST | DDHQ | FPO | Fox | Silver | RCP | Média |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA-1 | Brian Fitzpatrick (R) | Tende R | Tende R | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Tende R | Prov. D | Indef. | Tende D | Indef. | indefinida |
| TX-35 | vaga aberta (?) | Indef. | Tende R | Indef. | Indef. | Tende D | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | indefinida |
| ME-2 | Jared Golden (D) | Tende R | Tende R | Tende R | Tende D | Indef. | Indef. | Tende D | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | indefinida |
| VA-1 | Rob Wittman (R) | Indef. | Tende R | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Tende R | Prov. D | Indef. | Tende D | Indef. | indefinida |
| MI-4 | Bill Huizenga (R) | Indef. | Leve R | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Tende R | Tende D | Indef. | Tende D | Tende D | indefinida |
| MT-1 | Ryan Zinke (R) | Indef. | Leve R | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Tende R | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | indefinida |
| FL-22 | vaga aberta (?) | Indef. | Leve R | Indef. | Tende D | Indef. | Indef. | Tende D | Indef. | Tende D | Indef. | indefinida |
| KY-6 | Andy Barr (R) | Indef. | Leve R | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Tende R | Tende R | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | indefinida |
| TX-15 | Monica De La Cruz (R) | Indef. | Indef. | Tende D | Indef. | Tende D | Indef. | Tende R | Indef. | Tende D | Tende D | indefinida |
| IA-2 | Ashley Hinson (R) | Indef. | Indef. | Tende D | Tende D | Tende D | Indef. | Tende D | Indef. | Tende D | Indef. | tende a democrata |
| WI-1 | Bryan Steil (R) | Tende R | Prov. R | Tende R | Indef. | Tende R | Tende R | Tende D | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | tende a republicano |
| MI-10 | John James (R) | Indef. | Leve R | Indef. | Tende D | Tende D | Tende D | Tende D | Indef. | Tende D | Tende D | tende a democrata |
| OH-7 | Max Miller (R) | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Tende D | Tende D | Indef. | Tende D | Indef. | Prov. D | Tende D | tende a democrata |
| CO-5 | Jeff Crank (R) | Tende R | Leve R | Indef. | Tende R | Tende R | Prov. R | Indef. | Tende R | Indef. | Indef. | tende a republicano |
| MO-2 | Ann Wagner (R) | Prov. R | Gar. R | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Tende R | Indef. | Tende R | Indef. | Indef. | tende a republicano |
| NY-17 | Mike Lawler (R) | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Tende D | Tende D | Indef. | Prov. D | Tende D | Prov. D | Indef. | tende a democrata |
| OH-9 | Marcy Kaptur (D) | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Tende D | Prov. D | Tende D | Tende D | Indef. | Tende D | Tende D | tende a democrata |
| PA-8 | Rob Bresnahan (R) | Indef. | Leve D | Tende D | Indef. | Tende D | Indef. | Prov. D | Indef. | Prov. D | Tende D | tende a democrata |
| FL-14 | Kathy Castor (D) | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Prov. D | Tende D | Tende D | Tende D | Tende D | Prov. D | Indef. | tende a democrata |
| MN-1 | Brad Finstad (R) | Tende R | Prov. R | Tende R | Tende R | Tende R | Tende R | Indef. | Tende R | Indef. | Indef. | tende a republicano |
| NC-1 | Don Davis (D) | Indef. | Indef. | Tende D | Tende D | Tende D | Tende D | Tende D | Tende D | Prov. D | Indef. | tende a democrata |
| TX-23 | vaga aberta (?) | Tende R | Prov. R | Tende R | Tende R | Indef. | Tende R | Tende R | Tende R | Indef. | Indef. | tende a republicano |
| SC-1 | Nancy Mace (R) | Tende R | Tende R | Tende R | Indef. | Tende R | Tende R | Tende R | Tende R | Prov. R | Indef. | tende a republicano |
Governadores: as 12 corridas mais disputadas
| Disputa | Hoje | Cook | DDHQ | Fox | IE | NBC | RCP | Sabato | Silver | Média |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geórgia | Brian Kemp (R) | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | indefinida |
| Nevada | Joe Lombardo (R) | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Leve R | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | Indef. | indefinida |
| Wisconsin | Tony Evers (D) | Indef. | Tende D | Indef. | Indef. | Tende D | Indef. | Tende D | Tende D | tende a democrata |
| Kansas | Laura Kelly (D) | Indef. | Tende R | Tende R | Leve R | Tende R | Indef. | Tende R | Tende R | tende a republicano |
| Ohio | Mike DeWine (R) | Tende D | Tende D | Tende D | Indef. | Tende D | Indef. | Tende D | Prov. D | tende a democrata |
| Texas | Greg Abbott (R) | Tende R | Tende R | Tende R | Tende R | Tende R | Indef. | Tende R | Tende R | tende a republicano |
| Alasca | Mike Dunleavy (R) | Tende D | Tende D | Indef. | Indef. | Tende D | Tende D | Tende D | Gar. D | tende a democrata |
| Flórida | Ron DeSantis (R) | Tende R | Tende R | Tende R | Tende R | Tende R | Indef. | Tende R | Prov. R | tende a republicano |
| Iowa | Kim Reynolds (R) | Tende D | Tende D | Tende D | Leve D | Tende D | Tende D | Tende D | Prov. D | tende a democrata |
| Oregon | Tina Kotek (D) | Tende D | Prov. D | Tende D | Tende D | Prov. D | Indef. | Tende D | Prov. D | tende a democrata |
| Arizona | Katie Hobbs (D) | Tende D | Tende D | Tende D | Leve D | Tende D | Tende D | Prov. D | Gar. D | tende a democrata |
| Michigan | Gretchen Whitmer (D) | Tende D | Prov. D | Tende D | Leve D | Tende D | Tende D | Prov. D | Prov. D | tende a democrata |
Como lemos as notas
Cada fonte classifica a corrida de “garantida” a “indefinida” para cada partido. Algumas são analistas (Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections); outras são modelos estatísticos (Economist, Silver Bulletin, Split Ticket, Decision Desk HQ). Para a média, “garantida” vale 3, “provável” 2, “tende a” 1, “leve” 0,5 e “indefinida” 0. Os totais da Câmara por fonte somam as cadeiras fora da tabela (que todas consideram garantidas), conferidas com os totais publicados pelo Cook e pelo Sabato. O Voto Aberto não faz projeção própria.
Fontes
- Wikipedia, “2026 United States Senate elections (tabela de previsões)”, 27/10/2026. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections#Predictions
- Wikipedia, “2026 United States House of Representatives election ratings”, 27/10/2026. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_ratings
- Wikipedia, “2026 United States gubernatorial elections (tabela de previsões)”, 27/10/2026. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_gubernatorial_elections#Predictions
- Cook Political Report, “2026 CPR House Race Ratings”, 23/10/2026. https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings
- Sabato’s Crystal Ball, “Democrats Appear to Hold Narrow Senate Edge with Week to Go”, 27/10/2026. https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/democrats-appear-to-hold-narrow-senate-edge-with-week-to-go-rating-changes-for-senate-house-and-governors
- The American Presidency Project (UC Santa Barbara), “Seats in Congress gained/lost by the president's party in mid-term elections”, acesso em 27/10/2026. https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/seats-congress-gainedlost-the-presidents-party-mid-term-elections
- Wikipedia, “2026 United States House of Representatives elections (composição e vagas)”, 27/10/2026. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections
- U.S. Census Bureau, “2020 Census Apportionment Results”, 26/04/2021. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2020/dec/2020-apportionment-data.html
- Aos Fatos, “Trump não cancelou tarifa sobre produtos brasileiros em 2026”, 19/08/2026. https://www.aosfatos.org/noticias/trump-nao-cancelou-tarifa/
- The Conversation Brasil (Filipe Mendonça e Henrique Menezes), “Os EUA vendem mais para o Brasil do que compram, mas ainda assim Trump está impondo tarifas elevadas”, 17/09/2026. https://theconversation.com/os-eua-vendem-mais-para-o-brasil-do-que-compram-mas-ainda-assim-trump-esta-impondo-tarifas-elevadas-as-exportacoes-brasileiras-292198
- U.S. Census Bureau, “Trade in Goods with Brazil”, acesso em 27/10/2026. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c3510.html
- Constituição dos EUA, “Artigo I, Seção 8 (poder de criar tributos e tarifas) e Seção 7 (veto e derrubada por 2/3)”, 1787. https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/article-1/
As notas (ratings) são das fontes citadas; a média é uma conta simples do Voto Aberto, não um modelo próprio. Azul = democrata e vermelho = republicano, a convenção americana.